Surviving a Black Swan

August 14, 2016 (062710)   NOTES NOT EDITED

Surviving a Black Swan

1Kings 19

SIS:  You can survive, and thrive, no matter what difficulties you are facing or may face in life by knowing and obeying God's truth.

In 17th century Europe the commonly held belief was that all swans -- large members of the duck family -- were white.  All known swans were white.  All historical records portrayed swans as white.  In the 1600's in Europe, the idea of a black swan was an absolute impossibility. It could never happen.

But, it did.  They discovered black swans in Australia near the end of the 17th century.  They were rare, but black swans did, and do exist.

In an article in the New York Times not many years ago, Nassim Nicholas Taleb coined the phrase, "black swan," to describe an event that had extremely low probability of happening, but it has an extremely great impact when it does.  A black swan is a terrible tragedy that swoops down seemingly out of the blue.

September 11, 2001 was just such a "black swan" event.  Two separate planes crashed into the two twin towers in New York and sent them crashing to the ground.  This was an extremely rare (only time in history) event with extremely grave consequences.

Say you are travelling in a foreign country and all of a sudden you find yourself caught in the crossfire of a military takeover.  That would be a black swan event.  It would be extremely rare, but have a very great impact on your life.  Or, say you were hiking through some beautiful mountain back country and all of a sudden you are surrounded by walls of flames from a lightning ignited wild fire.  That would be a "black swan" event.  Or, you are walking on the beach and you notice the water starting to recede very quickly. A tsunami is coming and you better get ready.  That's a "black swan" event.

Chances are that for most of us we will not get caught in the crossfire during a military coup in a foreign country, get caught in a wild-fire, or swept up in a tsunami.  On the other hand you might find yourself suddenly out of a job.  That would be a "black swan" even for most families.  You might suddenly discover you have cancer.  That would be a "black swan" event.  A loved one might die unexpectedly, and that would be a "black swan" event in your life.  Your own death might be referred to as a “black swan event,” because it is very rare in an individual’s case—it only happens once—but it has very grave consequences—in fact, the consequences are eternal.

What would you do if you were suddenly facing an unexpected tragedy or trial with the potential for enormous unexpected consequences?  How well are you prepared?

Well, you can buy many different books to help you survive a wild-fire, avalanche, or even a tsunami.  There is one book, that gives us insight into surviving the "black swan events" most of us are likely to face.  That book is the Bible.  One example of a person who survived a black swan event is Elijah, the prophet.  Let's read together what God says about surviving "black swans" that swoop unexpectedly into our lives.

Now Ahab told Jezebel everything Elijah had done and how he had killed all the prophets with the sword. ² So Jezebel sent a messenger to Elijah to say, “May the gods deal with me, be it ever so severely, if by this time tomorrow I do not make your life like that of one of them.” ³ Elijah was afraid and ran for his life. When he came to Beersheba in Judah, he left his servant there, ⁴ while he himself went a day’s journey into the desert. He came to a broom tree, sat down under it and prayed that he might die. “I have had enough, Lord,” he said. “Take my life; I am no better than my ancestors.”

Just one chapter before the Word records Elijah’s miraculous victory over 850 false prophets who were armed with swords and spears. Nothing seems more “unlikely” (a Black Swan) than that a single woman, Jezebel, would have the Great Prophet running for his life and hoping to die.  When we least expect it, “Black Swans” swoop upon us and can cause great harm if we do not know what to do about it.

Now keep your eyes on the text as we continue to examine how Elijah dealt with this devastating, "black swan event" swooped down on his life.  Here's how you survive such an event:

1.  First, Do the Right Thing Next (v 3)

Let's review what had just taken place in Elijah's life.  Chapter 18 describes a phenomenal move of God when God's prophet, Elijah, took a stand against 450 prophets of Baal and 400 counterpart prophets of Ashterah.  That's 850 to 1 odds.  You remember there was a contest set up.  Each side would build an altar and pray.  Elijah would pray to his God, Yahweh.  The false prophets would pray to their God, Baal.  The god who sent fire to consume the altar, would be declared the only true God.

The false prophets of Baal went first.  They prayed, they shouted, they danced and they cut themselves with knives.  No fire.

Then Elijah took his turn. In fact, he soaked the sacrificial altar with water.  He prayed to God and fire came down from heaven engulfing the sacrifice and even consuming the water in the trench around the sacrifice.  Then, in obedience to the law of God, Elijah had the 850 false prophets put to death.

These were Jezebel’s personal prophets.  When she heard from Ahab what had happened to her prophets, she was furious – and that brings us to her violent threat against Elijah.  Jezebel was an extremely wicked lady and she had the means and motive to carry out her threats.

Elijah was worn out by the previous challenge on Mt. Carmel. He was spiritually discouraged because his victory over the false prophets of Baal, apparently had zero affect upon the leadership, and the people, of Israel.  Now, his life was threatened.  Look again at verse 3:

Elijah was afraid and ran for his life.

All the Bible characters are examples to us.  In this case, Elijah is an example of “what not to do next when a black swan event happens.”

Jezebel had already given him ample warning.  He was in no immediate danger, but he panicked. Survival of any tragedy usually depends on the “next thing you do after the tragedy hits.”  Let me say, panicking is not the right thing to do next.  When you train and prepare ahead of tragedy, you raise the odds that your “next action” will be the “right” action.  King David understood the importance of learning to “think God’s thoughts” by memorizing Scripture:

“How can a young man keep his way pure . . . Thy word have I hid in my heart that I might not sin against God” (Ps. 119:9,11).

What is the “right thing to do next” if you are faced with some tragic event in your life.  It is simple:  pray.  Elijah was a spiritual giant one day, and was running from a wicked lady the next.  He did not just run away – he ran over 90 miles south! This was days of running.  And, note this:  the further he ran, the worse his attitude got.  At the end of his running we read: (4b)

He came to a broom tree, sat down under it

and prayed that he might die.

When faced with a black swan event, you must to the “right thing next,” and that is “pray.”  If you are being chased by a bear, you might want to pray while your running—but pray!  Now, Elijah did finally get around to praying, but now he was so discouraged that he wanted to die.  For Elijah, prayer was a “last resort,” rather than his “first resource.”  When the next thing you do when tragedy strikes is not “praying” to seek God’s guidance and assistance, you are going to make things much worse than they could be.

The worst thing a person can do when a Black Swan hits, it take matters into one’s own hand.  We cannot control most of the events in our lives--we can only control our response.

This notice appeared in the window of a coat store in Nottingham, England: "We have been established for over 100 years and have been pleasing and displeasing customers ever since. We have made money and lost money, suffered the effects of coal nationalization, coat rationing, government control and bad payers. We have been cussed and discussed, messed about, lied to, held up, robbed and swindled. The only reason we stay in business is to see what happens next.“ 

When you become a person of prayer and a bowed head and bended heart is the default position of your life, you can look to the future with great expectation regardless of what you currently may be facing.  You can say with this shop keeper:  I am waiting to see what happens next.  As Isaiah pointed out many years ago,

^26:3 You will keep in perfect peace all who trust in you,

all whose thoughts are fixed on you!

When the Black Swan swoops down upon your life, what you do next, determines whether the outcome will be positive, or negative.  The right thing to to do next is always:  pray.

Another survival tip is this:

2.  Get It Before You Need It (4; 5-8)

while he himself went a day’s journey into the desert. He came to a broom tree, sat down under it and prayed that he might die. “I have had enough, Lord,” he said. “Take my life; I am no better than my ancestors.” ⁵ Then he lay down under the tree and fell asleep. All at once an angel touched him and said, “Get up and eat.” ⁶ He looked around, and there by his head was a cake of bread baked over hot coals, and a jar of water. He ate and drank and then lay down again. ⁷ The angel of the Lord came back a second time and touched him and said, “Get up and eat, for the journey is too much for you.” ⁸ So he got up and ate and drank. Strengthened by that food, he traveled forty days and forty nights until he reached Horeb, the mountain of God.

I think it goes without saying that the best time to prepare for a potential crisis is before it happens.

Just a few years ago as the world watched the beginning game of the World Series in San Francisco there was suddenly an interruption of the opening interview. The screen blinked and went blank. When the program resumed: A Special News Bulletin. The San Francisco metropolitan area had experienced a serious earthquake. We all watched the live pictures as the huge fire in the Marina area burned. A remote camera crew was there and we saw the firemen fighting the fires. The scene I remember the most, however, was a group of people standing around just looking at the destruction and looking at the fire.

 All of a sudden a cop came up to the crowd and yelled out to them: What are you people doing just standing there. You must get prepared immediately. Go home and fill your bathtubs up with water. Be prepared to live without city services for 72 hours. The sun will set in another hour and your time is running out. Go and get prepared.

We all know that a major quake is coming to California. It is only a matter of time.  The best way to survive this next quake is to prepare now.

This is true spiritually, as well as physically.  Sooner or later a Black Swan is going to swoop into your life.  It will be unexpected and the consequences will be great.  You need to “Get “it” now” Before you need “it.”

So, what is “it.”  “It” is a deep and abiding relationship with God through the Lord Jesus Christ.  I’m not talking some superficial salvation experience that will get you into the Kingdom of God by the skin of your teeth.  I’m talking about a relationship with God so rock solid that not even a California earthquake can cause your life to shift.

Elijah didn’t have this type of relationship, as much as he should have.  He was great when performing before a crowd, as on Mt. Carmel, but when the battle got real personal, he was knocked down and almost counted out.  Notice verses 5-7:

⁵ Then he lay down under the tree and fell asleep.All at once an angel touched him and said, “Get up and eat.” ⁶ He looked around, and there by his head was a cake of bread baked over hot coals, and a jar of water. He ate and drank and then lay down again.
⁷ The angel of the Lord came back a second time and touched him and said, “Get up and eat, for the journey is too much for you.”

Elijah needed nourishment.  Twice an angel fed him.  Elijah was malnourished.  Our bodies just cannot function without rest and refueling on a regular basis.  But, notice something in verse 10:

He replied, “I have been very zealous for the Lord God Almighty. The Israelites have rejected your covenant, broken down your altars, and put your prophets to death with the sword. I am the only one left, and now they are trying to kill me too."

Elijah needed more than just physical nourishment.  He was malnourished spiritually. His heart was completely discouraged and his spirit was like a limp rag.  God had become like a stranger to Elijah and he felt lonely and abandoned.  Look what God does:
11-13

The Lord said, “Go out and stand on the mountain in the presence of the Lord, for the Lord is about to pass by.” Then a great and powerful wind tore the mountains apart and shattered the rocks before the Lord, but the Lord was not in the wind. After the wind there was an earthquake, but the Lord was not in the earthquake. ¹² After the earthquake came a fire, but the Lord was not in the fire. And after the fire came a gentle whisper. ¹³ When Elijah heard it, he pulled his cloak over his face and went out and stood at the mouth of the cave.

Elijah had allowed his relationship with God to grow weak.  He had lost the ability to hear God’s voice. It is always the case:  when we allow our relationship with God through the Lord Jesus Christ to fall into the chasm of apathy, we will be ill prepared to deal with the Black Swans that will surely come our way.  We will end up completely discouraged and sitting on the side-line of live – or worse, in a cave of self-pity.

Brothers and sisters, you need to keep the flame of your love for God burning briskly.  Every time you read the Word, pray, fellowship with others, worship, and work for the Lord, you are preparing for the time when the Black Swan swoops into your life. Likewise, every time you miss a sermon, miss an opportunity to worship with God’s family, or you miss a day reading and meditating on God’s Word, you are risking not being prepared when the Black Swan swoops down into your life.

Get “it” – that is a deep, soul-consuming, life-giving relationship with Jesus Christ – before you need it.  Get “it” now.  Don’t leave here this morning until you absolutely sure that you can hear God when He speaks to you.

3.  Give In, But Never Give Up (v 19, "so")

⁹ So Elijah departed (ESV)

When a Black Swan event happens in your life, and you have established a connection with God through prayer, you need to take stock of your situation.  To overcome your circumstances you must give in to the fact that you cannot do anything about your circumstances – at least not immediately.

Iraqi journalist Ahmed Abdullah, like many others, realized the importance of “giving in” to one’s circumstances, but never “giving up.”  For years he covered the battles raging in the Middle East.  War and strife became a way of life for him.  He talked about giving in, but never giving up.  He said, “If you [become] afraid, then you have to lock yourself inside your house.  But, if you want to keep on living, then you must forget about your fears and deal with death as something that is a must, something that’s going to happen. Whatever you do, you are not going to change [your circumstances].”

I’ve walked with so many people over the years that have had Black Swan experiences.  Some simply could not accept the circumstances they were in.  They were consumed with asking the question “why, why why?”  At first this is a natural reaction, but if it is prolonged, you will end up becoming negative. All survival manuals will tell you that one key to survival is maintaining a positive attitude.  Accept your circumstances—give in—but remain steadfast in your trust in God that He will bring you through.  Notice how poorly Elijah performed in this regard:  (verse 10)

¹⁰ He replied, “I have been very zealous for the Lord God Almighty. The Israelites have rejected your covenant, broken down your altars, and put your prophets to death with the sword. I am the only one left, and now they are trying to kill me too."

By the time Elijah uttered these words he was at least 600 miles away from Jezebel and the “24 hour” promise to kill him had long expired, but his negative talk had convinced him he could not survive.

There was a day when boxing matches lasted until one man could not get up.  There was no time limit.  One great boxer who had become a champion (his name escapes me) was asked by a reporter, “What is your secret to winning?”  The boxer said, “My plan is quite simple:  Fight one more round.”

When a Black Swan hits, and it will, a major key to survival is to “give in, but never give up.”

4. Look for Ways to Serve Others vv 15-20a

⁵ The Lord said to him, “Go back the way you came, and go to the Desert of Damascus. When you get there, anoint Hazael king over Aram. ¹⁶ Also, anoint Jehu son of Nimshi king over Israel, and anoint Elisha son of Shaphat from Abel Meholah to succeed you as prophet. ¹⁷ Jehu will put to death any who escape the sword of Hazael, and Elisha will put to death any who escape the sword of Jehu. ¹⁸ Yet I reserve seven thousand in Israel—all whose knees have not bowed down to Baal and all whose mouths have not kissed him.”  ¹⁹ So Elijah went from there and found Elisha son of Shaphat. He was plowing with twelve yoke of oxen, and he himself was driving the twelfth pair. Elijah went up to him and threw his cloak around him. ²⁰ Elisha then left his oxen and ran after Elijah.

Of the survival tips I’ve shared so far from the life of Elijah, none is more important than, “Doing the Right Thing Next,” which is pray.

The second most important survival tip when a Black Swan event happens is this:  “Look for Ways to Serve Others.”  I cannot tell you how important this principle is.  Elijah is a perfect example of what happens when you become so fixated on your own problems that you cannot see anything else.  Look in verses 9-10:

⁹ There he went into a cave and spent the night. And the word of the Lord came to him: “What are you doing here, Elijah?”

¹⁰ He replied, “I have been very zealous for the Lord God Almighty. The Israelites have rejected your covenant, broken down your altars, and put your prophets to death with the sword. I am the only one left, and now they are trying to kill me too.”

If you are currently paralyzed by some event or circumstance in life that has you cowering in a dark cave, drowning in a pool of self-pity let me repeat God’s Word to Elijah:

“What are you doing here?”

A cave of self-pity and discouragement is no place for a child of God.  The problem with fueling your life with self-centeredness or self-pity is that it perpetuates your problems and makes matters worse. 

God set Elijah right back into the ministry that he had run from.  Elijah may have been finished with himself, but God was not finished with him.  In fact, the greatest ministry Elijah would ever perform in his ministry was the calling of Elisha: (19-20a). [ABOVE]

Christians are saved to serve.  You will never reach your full potential or be able to survive—and thrive—in the midst of a Black Swan if you are not 100% committed to serving others in the name of God.

I believe this is a very important message for all of us this morning.  Chances are that the worst thing that ever happened to us, may not have happened yet.  There may yet be a Black Swan event in our future.

Will we survive—and even thrive—when this event happens?  I certainly believe we can and we will if obediently apply these four tips to our lives:

·         Do the Right Thing Next:  Pray.

·         Get “It” Before You Need “It”:  A dynamic relationship with God through a daily walk with Christ.

·         Give in, but Never Give Up!

·         Look for Ways to Serve Others.